Existing-Home Sales Down, but Prices Rise

Existing-home sales fell as expected in December after first-time buyers rushed to complete deals during the months leading up to the original November deadline for the tax credit. However, prices rose from December 2008 and annual sales improved in 2009, according to the National Association of REALTORS^®.

Existing-home sales—including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops—fell 16.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million units in December from 6.54 million in November, but remain 15 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in December 2008.

There were approximately 5,156,000 existing-home sales in 2009, which was 4.9 percent higher than the 4,913,000 transactions recorded in 2008. It was the first annual sales gain since 2005.

Tax Credit Creates Swing in Market

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says there were no surprises in the data.

“It’s significant that home sales remain above year-ago levels, but the market is going through a period of swings driven by the tax credit,” he said. “We’ll likely have another surge in the spring as home buyers take advantage of the extended and expanded tax credit. By early summer the overall market should benefit from more balanced inventory, and sales are on track to rise again in 2010."

However, Yun says, the job market remains a concern and could dampen the housing recovery. "Job creation is key to a continued recovery in the second half of the year,” he says.

An NAR practitioner survey shows first-time buyers purchased 43 percent of homes in December, down from 51 percent in November. Repeat buyers rose to 42 percent of transactions in December from 37 percent in November; the remaining sales were to investors.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,300 in December, which is 1.5 percent higher than December 2008.

“The median price rose because of an increased number of mid- to upper-priced homes in the sales mix,” Yun says. It was the first year-over-year gain in median price since August 2007.

Falling Inventories

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder said market conditions are challenging in some areas.

“There’s a shortage of lower-priced homes for sale in much of the country, resulting in multiple bids in some areas,” she says. “Raw unsold inventory has been trending down. As the market heats up again this spring, buyers may need to be prepared to move quickly on a particular home."

Total housing inventory at the end of December fell 6.6 percent to 3.29 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 7.2-month supply at the current sales pace. That is an increase from a 6.5-month supply in November.

Raw unsold inventory is 11.1 percent below a year ago, is at the lowest level since March 2006, and is 28.2 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.

Distressed homes, which accounted for 32 percent of sales last month, continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

For all of 2009, the median price was $173,500, down 12.4 percent from $198,100 in 2008. Distressed homes accounted for 36 percent of total sales last year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.93 percent in December from 4.88 percent in November; the rate was 5.29 percent in December 2008.

Single-Family Home, Condo Sales Dip

Single-family home sales fell 16.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.79 million in December from a pace of 5.76 million in November. Sales are 12.7 percent above the 4.25 million level in December 2008. For all of 2009, single-family sales rose 5 percent to 4,566,000.

The median existing single-family home price was $177,500 in December, which is 1.4 percent above a year ago. For all last year, the median price for a single-family home was $173,200, down 11.9 percent from 2008.

Meanwhile, existing condominium and co-op sales fell 15.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 660,000 in December from 780,000 in November. Sales are 34.7 percent higher than the 490,000-unit pace a year ago. For all of 2009, condo sales rose 4.8 percent to 590,000 units.

The median existing condo price was $183,700 in December, up 1 percent from December 2008. For all of last year, the median condo price was $176,100, which is 16.1 percent below 2008.

Regional Breakdown

Here are existing-home sales figures by region:

• Northeast: sales dropped 19.5 percent to an annual level of 910,000 in December but are 21.3 percent above a year ago. Median price: $241,700, up 3.2 percent from December 2008.
• Midwest: sales fell 25.8 percent in December to a level of 1.15 million but are 8.5 percent higher than December 2008. Median price: $143,200, which is 1.8 percent above a year ago.
• South: sales dropped 16.3 percent to an annual pace of 2.01 million in December but are 15.5 percent above December 2008. Median price: $152,000, down 1 percent from a year ago.
• West: sales declined 4.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.38 million in December but are 15 percent higher than a year ago. Median price: $236,000, up 2.7 percent from December 2008.

— NAR

30-Year Mortgage Rates Slide Below 5%

Long-term mortgage rates fell for the third straight week, pushing the average rate on 30-year fixed home loans below 5 percent again, according to Freddie Mac.

This week, average interest on 30-year mortgages was 4.99 percent, compared to 5.06 percent last week and 5.16 percent a year ago.

Rates on 15-year fixed loans also followed bond yields lower, averaging 4.40 percent, compared to 4.45 percent last week; and adjustable-rate mortgages also fell this week.

Source: Los Angeles Times, E. Scott Reckard (01/22/10)

FHA Unveils Stricter Guidelines

The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has issued new guidelines that will require higher down payments from riskier borrowers, reduce allowable seller concessions and increase enforcement on FHA lenders. The policy changes are designed to strengthen the mortgage insurance agency’s capital reserves, which have fallen below mandated levels, while enabling it to continue to provide access to homeownership for underserved communities. At a briefing this morning, FHA commissioner David H. Stevens said, “These changes are overdue…While change is difficult, these are the right moves and [they] will actually bring confidence back to the market.”

The FHA insures approximately 30 percent of new mortgage loans in the United States, Stevens said. The policy changes focus on four main initiatives.

1. The agency will increase the mortgage insurance premium (MIP) from 1.75 percent to 2.25 percent in an effort to increase its capital reserves. The change would go into effect in the spring.

2. New borrowers will be required to have a minimum credit score of 580 to qualify for FHA’s 3.5 percent down payment program. New borrowers with less than a 580 credit score will be required to put down at least 10 percent. The change would go into effect in early summer.

3. Allowable seller concessions, which typically are offered to help buyers cover closing costs or property upgrades, will be reduced from 6 percent to 3 percent. The change would go into effect in early summer.

4. The agency will increase enforcement of standards on its lenders.

Stevens said several government initiatives over the last year, including the homebuyer tax credit and the Making Home Affordable program, are having a positive impact on the housing market and the FHA. “The home sales for two quarters in a row have been a pleasant surprise,” Stevens said. “I see light at the end of the tunnel…Overall we think the trend is generally headed in the right direction.”

Home Price Reductions Decline

About one in five homes (21 percent) currently on the market as of Jan. 1 has had at least one price cut, according to a new Trulia survey. This is the second straight month in which price reduction levels have decreased. The total amount trimmed from home prices also dropped 14 percent to $21.2 billion in January, down from $24.7 billion a month ago. The average discount for price-reduced homes is This month is 11 percent.

The luxury home market (homes listed at $2 million and higher) continues to be hit hard by price reductions, with an average price cut of 15 percent. The average discount for homes prices at less than $2 million remains at 10 percent.

Jacksonville, Fla., leads the nation with the highest percentage of listings with price reductions at 36 percent; the average price cut in that market is 11 percent.

Will Home Prices Go Down in 2010?

Some real estate researchers are forecasting that home prices will fall again in 2010.

· Fiserv Lending Solutions, a financial analytics firm, predicts that prices will decline an average of 11.3 percent in 342 of the 381 markets it covers.

· Moody’s Economy.com foresees another 8 percent drop, with Arizona, California, Florida, and Nevada feeling even more pain.

· Shari Olefson, author of Foreclosure Nation: Mortgaging the American Dream, predicts a national average decline in prices of about 10 percent in 2010.

· Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital and the most bearish of the bears, says real estate prices could possibly fall another 30 percent before they hit bottom.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun sees it all differently. He predicts home prices will rise more than 3 percent in 2010.

"The headwind we face is rising mortgage interest rates," Yun says, "but the compensating factors will be the home buyers tax credit in the first half of the year and increased job creation in the second half."

Source: CNNMoney.com, Les Christie (01/01/2010)

Record Year for Mortgage Company Failures

More than 225 mortgage-related companies ended their operations or failed in 2009, more than any year since MortgageDaily.com began tracking data in 1998.

Bank failures lead the decline with 140 suspended and forced into bankruptcy. There were 66 non-bank closures and 19 credit union failures.

The most notable 2009 failures included Ocala, Fla.-based Taylor Bean Whitaker Mortgage Corp., Melville, N.Y.-based Lend America, and Montgomery, Ala.-based Colonial Bank.

Source: MortgageDaily.com (01/04/2010)

Housing Market to Stabilize in 2010: Report

While some economists are concerned about the possibility of an ongoing housing market downturn in 2010, one new report finds that increased home affordability and government incentives will help stabilize the housing market in the coming year.

The RPX Monthly Housing Market Report, released by real estate data and analytics company Radar Logic, contends that household incomes also will stabilize after unemployment peaks in the second or third quarter. Banks and financial institutions holding onto the backlog of distressed properties are expected to release them back into the market gradually, so the homes will be absorbed without drastically reducing prices.

“If efforts to ease foreclosure can and do succeed, there could be significant recovery in housing values in 2010,” says Michael Feder, President and CEO of Radar Logic. “Inventories are close to the norm of six months’ supply and prices have returned to 2003/2004 levels. Activity is much stronger than normal for this time of year, and there is evidence of qualified buyers waiting on the sidelines. If we can put an end to the financially-driven weakness, it may well be time for housing values to go up,” Feder says.

Two-Year House Price Depreciation Ends

U.S. house prices edged up 0.2 percent between the second and third quarter, ending a two-year skid, according to the latest quarterly housing valuation analysis by IHS Global Insight. California led the nation with a 2.1 percent home price increase during the quarter. Of the 330 metro areas analyzed in the House Prices in America study, 169 showed price increases during the quarter while 161 posted declines. By comparison, 317 metro areas had price declines in the fourth quarter of 2008.

In annual terms, house prices nationwide edged up slightly by 0.9 percent during the third quarter. This marks the first increase since the second quarter of 2007 when the housing market began to decline. From their peak in 2007, U.S. housing prices have fallen an average of 10.7 percent.

The study also finds that the nation as a whole is slightly undervalued. None of the markets included in the study were found to be extremely overvalued in the third quarter, compared to 2005 when 52 markets fit that description. However, most of the markets that are somewhat overvalued are located in the Pacific Northwest. Mon,