This upcoming winter's national weather forecast will be closely monitored. Retailers will be assessing potential sales of warm coats. Utility companies need to anticipate heating fuel usage. Scientists will look at the latest climate and environmental data and debate the pace of the planet’s warming trends.

For most of us "everyday" people, however, the national weather forecast of an average of 46 degrees or 38 degrees is equally as useful – or not. Who cares! We need local weather information.

What a Difference Location Makes!
Real estate works similarly. National housing market trends are important for economists to assess their impact on the national economy. The country’s monetary policy at times is determined in relation to overall national housing market conditions.

However, for the 75 million home owners and millions of home buyers and sellers, the only meaningful information is local market conditions. Home prices have been rising strongly in Utah and large parts of North Carolina. Home sales have been clicking at a near-record pace in Dallas. The Boston market, which had been very soft with falling home prices in the past two years, has begun to show early signs of recovery. Stress signs have been rising in some parts of California, yet the Bay Area – already home to the highest home prices in the country – could experience a nice appreciation due to a strong job market turnaround after the dot-com bust of few years ago. And watch out for Wichita: exceptionally fast local job growth combined with the very affordable home prices will likely result in a “pop” in home price growth in that Kansas metro.

In other words, there are significant local variations in the housing climate. National housing market data can be as meaningless for consumers as national weather data.

Yet, recent discussions of housing market conditions have centered predominantly around national data. The media have been frequently reciting the first national annual price decline since the Great Depression, and then associating current housing market conditions to those back in the 1930s. While that may be factually correct, it is highly misleading for a casual audience as such comparison often neglects to provide proper context.

The Ratings Game
Our forecast calls for about a 1.7-percent decline in the national median price, but this will come on the heels of a more-than- 50-percent rise in home values during the recent market boom. A price decline of 1.7 percent is not very significant in the wider context. And there are a great many local variations in the figures that the media often neglect as well. Why?

The easy answer is viewer and listener ratings. There seems to be a desire to “sensationalize” the news in hopes of retaining an audience in an ever-expanding information age. Fortunately, time and time again American consumers have proven to be smart (smarter than most media give them credit for perhaps) if given informational choices. Consumers will get tired of spoon-fed “sensationalized” news and will seek out relevant news.

It's Not Just About Money
The fact is that homeownership brings immense benefits over the long-term. Aside from near-certain housing equity gains over a typical holding period of 6 years, homeownership provides a great place to live and raise a family. Homeowners in Providence, Los Angeles, and Houston will attest to the long-term benefits even though they had encountered a volatile market swings some 15 to 20 years ago. In addition, academic studies have demonstrated many social benefits of homeownership such as higher student test scores, higher educational attainment and lifetime income, higher civic participation, higher self-esteem from perceived self-control, and even better health conditions.

It is important to note that the benefits of ownership do not mean that households should be pushed into buying a home if they are not ready to do so or misled into taking out a loan with teaser rate mortgages. Home buying is a serious decision and needs to be examined thoroughly.

It would be shame, nonetheless, if a household that is financially able did not buy a home due to excessive fear in the marketplace brought on by sensationalized national news. And while it would be irresponsible to assign all the blame to the media or try to muzzle it in any way, it is important when looking at housing market conditions that all forms of free speech are embraced – including information from bloggers as well as conversations consumers have with their neighbors, lenders, and even housing industry economists! Consumers will, in the end, discover the facts, and serious buyers will recognize a unique opportunity to own a piece of America: there is a vast inventory of homes to choose from in many local markets and a variety of safe mortgage products at historically low interest rates.

Of course, one of the best sources of information about local real estate markets are the REALTORS® who serve those markets. Though there are more than half million additional REALTORS® in the business today compared to 2000, serious REALTORS® understand the true value-added service they provide their clients. Results from the recently released 2007 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that 87 percent of home buyers and 81 percent of home sellers would use the same real estate agent again or recommend that agent to others.

Serious REALTORS® also understand the need to serve the long-term benefits of home ownership and that all real estate is intensely local. For consumers considering buying or selling a home, there is no one better informed than a local neighborhood REALTOR®.

Most Metro Areas See Modest Price Gains

The vast majority of U.S. metropolitan areas showed rising or stable home prices in the third quarter, with most experiencing modest gains compared with a year earlier, says the latest quarterly survey by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

In the third quarter, 93 out of 150 metropolitan statistical areas show increases in median existing single-family home prices from a year earlier, including six areas with double-digit annual gains and another 21 metros showing increases of 6 percent or more. Fifty-four areas had price declines, and three were unchanged. Regionally, prices rose in both the Northeast and Midwest, as did the national condo price.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the data underscores the fact that all real estate is local. “Some metro areas are hot while others are experiencing localized problems,” he said. “The report also shows that home prices in the vast midsection of America, from the Appalachians to the Rockies, are affordable and, perhaps, even undervalued.

Yun says the quarterly metro home price report is the most meaningful long-term series available on price performance because it looks at all of the available transactions in a given area.

Unlike other home price series that are based on county records and mortgage securities, which are collected well after the actual transaction date, NAR’s information comes directly from multiple listing services. The report includes actual market prices rather than just the percentage changes so people can compare housing values around the country, Yun says.

Even with most areas showing improvement, a disruption in higher-priced sales impacted the national median existing single-family home price, which was $220,800 in the third quarter, down 2 percent from the third quarter of 2006 when the median price was $225,300.

The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.

Gaylord: Know Your Market

NAR President Richard Gaylord says consumers need to understand what’s going on in their own area. “There is no such thing as a national housing market – it doesn’t perform like the equities markets,” he says. “What’s really important for consumers is to make informed decisions based on individual needs, desires, and timelines in a given area. Most people plan to stay in a home for 10 years, and for buyers with a long-term view, housing is an excellent investment.”

Typical sellers purchased their home six years ago, with the median price in the third quarter of 2001 at $159,100. Despite the dip in the national median price over the past year, the median increase in value for home sellers who bought six years ago is 38.8 percent. “Nearly every market is showing positive long-term gains, with a home equity accumulation of $61,700 over the past six years for a typical U.S. home owner,” Gaylord says.

Even in most of the places that are undergoing a large price decline, long-term increases are quite respectable, he says. For example, the Sarasota area of Florida is showing a median rise in home value of $112,000 over the typical holding period, and ranks well above norm for overall gains.”

Biggest Price Gains, Biggest Drops

In the third quarter, the largest single-family home price increase was in Bismarck, N.D., area, where the median price of $161,600 rose 15.1 percent from a year ago. Next was the Salt Lake City area, at $246,700, up 14.1 percent from the third quarter of 2006, followed by Yakima, Wash., where the third quarter median price increased 13.6 percent to $163,200.

Median third-quarter metro area single-family home prices ranged from a very affordable $81,600 in the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania, to more than 10 times that amount in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California, where the median price was $852,500.

The second most expensive area was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, at $825,400, followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area (Orange County, Calif.), at $700,700.

Other affordable markets include the Saginaw-Saginaw Township North area of Michigan, with a third-quarter median price of $84,900, and Decatur, Ill., at $85,900.

Condo Market Recap

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 59 metro areas – show the national median existing condo price was $226,900 in the third quarter, up 2 percent from $222,500 in the third quarter of 2006. Forty-one metros showed annual increases in the median condo price, including six areas with double-digit gains; 18 areas had price declines.

The strongest condo price increases were in Bismarck, N.D., where the third quarter price of $133,300 rose 22.3 percent from a year earlier, followed by the Austin-Round Rock area of Texas, at $171,700, up 19.2 percent, and the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton area of Oregon and Washington, where the median condo price of $210,200 rose 14.9 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

Metro area median existing-condo prices in the third quarter ranged from $114,000 in the Rochester, N.Y., area, to $663,700 in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area. The second most expensive condo market reported was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, at $388,800, followed by the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos area at $351,900.

Other affordable condo markets include Wichita, Kan., at $117,100 in the third quarter, and the Cincinnati-Middletown area of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana at $117,500.

Sales Pace: State by State

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.42 million units in the third quarter, down 13.7 percent from a 6.29 million-unit pace in the third quarter of 2006. “The housing market correction is clearly focused on transaction volume and not in home prices,” Yun notes.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.55 percent in the third quarter, up from 6.37 percent in the second quarter; the rate was 6.56 percent in the third quarter of 2006. Last week, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate was down to 6.24 percent.

Only two states showed annual gains in existing-home sales from the third quarter of 2006, while complete data for two states were not available. In North Dakota, the level of third-quarter sales rose 2.9 percent from a year ago, while Vermont increased 0.8 percent. “The biggest decline in sales appears to be concentrated in areas that had significant levels of speculative investment, including Nevada, Florida and Arizona,” Yun said.

Regional Price Trends

Northeast: The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast rose 3.2 percent to $286,300 in the third quarter from the same period 2006. Total existing-home sales in the region declined 7.3 percent to an annual pace of 973,000 units in the third quarter from the same period a year ago.

The strongest price increase in the Northeast was in the Binghamton, N.Y., area, at $119,600, up 11.4 percent from the third quarter of last year, followed by Reading, Penn., with a median price of $162,900, up 7.0 percent, and Atlantic City, N.J., at $273,100, up 6.2 percent.

Midwest: The median existing single-family home price increased 0.5 percent to $170,800 in the third quarter from the same period in 2006. Overall, existing-home sales in the Midwest fell 10.8 percent to a 1.27 million-unit annual level in the third quarter compared with a year ago.
After Bismarck, N.D., the strongest metro price increase in the Midwest was in the Green Bay, Wis., area, where the median price of $162,900 was 7.2 percent higher than a year ago. Next was Akron, Ohio, at $124,700, up 6.9 percent from the third quarter of 2006, and Gary-Hammond, Ind., at $144,300, up 6.7 percent.

South: The median existing single-family home price in the South was $180,800 in the third quarter, which is 3.6 percent below a year earlier. Total existing-home sales in the region were at an annual rate of 2.16 million units in the third quarter, down 14.3 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

The strongest price increase in the South was in the Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord area of North Carolina and South Carolina, at $220,100, up 11.0 percent from a year ago, followed by the Beaumont-Port Arthur area of Texas, with a 10.2 percent gain to $129,100, and Corpus Christi, Texas, at $140,500, up 7.6 percent.

West: The median existing single-family home price in the West was $338,100 in the third quarter, down 3.8 percent from a year ago. The existing-home sales pace in the West of 1.01 million units fell 21.5 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

After Salt Lake City and Yakima, the strongest metro price increase in the West was in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area, which increased 9.4 percent from a year ago, followed by the San Francisco-Oakland-Freemont area, up 8.6 percent from the third quarter of 2006.

— REALTOR® Magazine Online

'Roulette Economy' of 2007 Is Almost Over

2007 has been a year of challenge; 2008 will be a year of opportunity for serious buyers and for REALTORS®,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told a packed house at the NAR Conference Tuesday.

What Yun characterized as “the roulette economy” of 2007, fueled by subprime greed and then buyers’ fear, is almost over. With a favorable economy, pent-up home demand, and Wall Street “fessing up to its losses and cleaning up its underwriting,” 2008 will be a healthy market for serious buyers, he said.

Home prices nationally have declined by some 1.5 percent in 2007, which is "no big deal" after years of rapid appreciation, said Yun. In addition, he noted, there are still many markets such as Utah, North Carolina, and Tennessee that are appreciating and may even be undervalued.

Remind Clients That Markets Are Local

“REALTORS® have to educate their clients that all markets are local and that problems in a few areas aren’t meaningful," he said. "A national picture of the real estate market is just about as valuable as giving a national high temperature for the day."

Yun also noted that while the credit crunch slowed deals in 2007, much of the pain is being felt in the subprime area, while other mortgage sectors are stabilizing. Subprime constitutes only about 10 percent of mortgage loans, but accounts for some 40 percent of current foreclosures. Going forward, proposed federal legislation that would increase FHA loan limits should help moderate-income buyers, said Yun.

Yun expects GDP growth of 2.8 percent and job growth of 1.1 percent in 2008. Inflation should also remain under 3 percent, and interest rates should rise only slightly, he predicts. “For buyers who are into home ownership for the long term, housing still remains the best investment,” he concluded.

Strong Fundamentals Bode Well for Housing

Other national sales downturns in the last 30 years were spurred by broad economic problems, Yun said. This year, by contrast, economic fundamentals remain solid, with the U.S. gross domestic product expected to grow by a respectable 2 percent, supported by 2 million job gains in the last two years and continuing low interest rates.

Yun said 2007 existing-home sales will exceed 5.5 million, close to the level in 2002, a record-setting year. At the same time, home prices remain near record highs despite drops in a few markets.

Get Ready for the New Generation

Following Yun’s presentation, former NAR economist John Tuccillo gave attendees a preview of what the next real estate market would look like. When recovery comes, said Tuccillo, most clients will be Gen X and Gen Y. These younger buyers don’t want relationship selling; instead they want the best bottom line deal you can find and the one-stop shopping to make the deal faster so they can get on with their lives.

Other big buyers in the next decade will be retiring boomers, who will want homes in 24-hour cities and college towns. “Real estate practitioners have traditionally worked with first-time buyers. Think of these people as last-time buyers,” he quipped.

It’s hard to predict when any local market will begin to improve, but there are three indicators, said Tuccillo. First would be a drop in new listings, indicating sellers are withdrawing from the market. Second, days on market will fall. And third, the gap between listing price and sales price will narrow.

— REALTOR® Magazine Online

Employment Opportunity

 Part Time Permanent: Executive Administrator for Girdwood nonprofit.  Position open now.  Good people skills, organized.  Own computer and vehicle needed.  Good composition and spelling skills.  Familiar with Word and Excel.  Reliable. Average 20 – 25 hours per month.  Send letter of interest and resume as soon as possible to:  Girdwood 2020, P. O. Box 1102, Girdwood, AK 99587.

Employment Opportunity 

Full Time Permanent: Executive Director for The Roundhouse at Alyeska Museum to open soon.  Prior museum experience not required but must be organized and willing to learn.  Fundraising experience useful.  Supervise 2-3 part time seasonal workers, volunteers and Forest Service personnel.  Good writing and communication skills.  Prepare and manage a budget. Organize programs  and events for the Museum. Order for museum gift shop and handle cash. Report to and work with directors of Girdwood, Inc.   Send letter of interest and resume before December 31, 2007 to:

Girdwood, Inc., P. O. Box 1102, Girdwood, AK 99587.

ALYESKA RESORT OPENS WITH 84” OF NEW SNOW

For Immediate Release
November 15, 2007
Media Contact:  Jason Lott – (907) 754-2211 – jlott@alyeskaresort.com

Girdwood, Alaska –November 15, 2007 –  With the 84 inches that fell since November 1, Alyeska Resort mountain crews have been hard at work preparing the upper-mountain for the first opening of the 2007-2008 season.  The upper mountain boasts 84 inches of snow pack, while midway has 48 inches, and the base has 22 inches. 

The upper mountain with lift access on the Alyeska Tramway and Chair 6 will open on Saturday for the first time this season from 10:30am to 4:00pm.  The lower mountain will be closed to skiing and riding.  The Tram ticket office and hotel rental shop will be open at 8:30am. 

With the recent snowfall Alyeska Ski Area has received the amounts of snow needed to open more terrain and are quickly preparing the mountain.  Preparations have included extensive avalanche mitigation, prior to the finishing touches of grooming and signage to ensure safety of the guests.   

Lift ticket prices will be discounted until more terrain opens.  All Day lift ticket prices (10:30am to 4:00pm) for Saturday and Sunday, November 17th & 18th will be $35 for adults, $25 for high school students/military/seniors over 60, $20 for children ages 8-13, and $10 for children under 7 years of age (children under 7 with a paying adult ski for free).

Half day lift ticket prices (1:00pm to 4:00pm) for Saturday and Sunday, November 17th & 18th will be $22 for adults, $16 for high school students/military/seniors over 60, $12 for children ages 8-13, and $10 for children under 7 years of age (children under 7 with a paying adult ski for free).

Skiers and snowboarders are encouraged to call the SKI-SNOW hotline (907-754-7669) for the most accurate lift, weather, and trail conditions.  Detailed information about winter events, mountain operations, lift ticket prices, and current snow conditions are also available at www.alyeskaresort.com.  For hotel or dining reservations please call 907-754-1111.         

The world is constantly changing.  The manner in which real estate is bought and sold is no different.  The Internet has revolutionized most business models, including the real estate sales model.  What will happen next?

Education is paramount to remaining sharp and on the cutting edge.  I have been spending a considerable amount of time the last few months in education courses.  Aside from completing the requirements imposed by the Alaska Real Estate Commission, I have been working towards three advance designations and will be attending two conferences out of state this winter with top real estate professionals from throughout the country where we will hear from industry experts and exchange ideas.

RE/MAX makes available to it's associates a unique education platform.  From it's satellite television station (R. S. N.) to streaming video training on demand, RE/MAX provides cutting edge educational opportunities.  As a member of the National Association of REALTORS, I have access to "eLearning Courses", administered by industry experts, right in my office.

Education is a never ending process if one wants to remain sharp in an ever changing world.

Home prices have risen in five major markets, while continuing to fall in the rest of the country, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for August, released Tuesday.

The largest price declines are in rust belt cities, although Tampa came out as the big loser as speculators abandoned properties.

“The fall in home prices is showing no real signs of a slowdown or turnaround," says Robert J. Shiller, co-creator of the index and chief economist for MacroMarkets LLC.

The Case-Shiller indexes track multiple sales of the same homes in an attempt to screen out price differences caused by shifts in the size and type of houses being sold. Some housing economists consider these indexes the best gauge of national and metro real-estate values.

Here are the changes in the August price level from a year earlier for single-family homes.

5 Cities Where Prices Rose

1. Seattle: 5.7
2. Charlotte: 5.6
3. Portland: 2.8
4. Atlanta: 0.8
5. Dallas: 0.5

1. Tampa: -10.1
2. Detroit: -9.3
3. San Diego: -8.3
4. Phoenix: -8.0
5. Miami: -7.8
6. Las Vegas: -7.6
7. Washington, D.C.: -7.2
8. Los Angeles: -5.7
9. San Francisco: -4.2
10. Cleveland: -4.1
11. Minneapolis: -4.0
12. New York: -3.8
13. Boston: -3.6
14. Chicago: -1.3
15. Denver: -0.4